Long-term forest demography

Long-term forest demography

The Long-term Forest Demographic (LTFD) Analysis was established to understand how climate, disturbance, herbivores, and competition interact to control change in eastern forests.  The network, originally established as five stands in the southern Appalachians in 1991, has expanded to include the Piedmont and foothills in 1998 and 1999. NEON sites were added in 2018. In addition to tree inventories, seed production is tracked with crop counts, seed traps, or both.  Experimental treatments have included elevated CO2, canopy gaps, N fertilization, and deer exclosures.  The project has been supported by a number of NSF grants, including the Coweeta LTER and  NSF’s Macrosystems Biology Program.

From the inception observations on natural variation in space and time were combined with experimental manipulation of the environment.  The data set now extends over 25 yrs from 69,741 trees.  We have quantified the interactions between temperature, drought, and competition for light and moisture vary widely between species and size classes.

Early studies quantified basic demographic rates, introducing the emerging hierarchical Bayes paradigm, organized as state-space models.  New modeling innovations have continued to play a large role in this research.

The summary of long term plots that follows includes plots monitored solely by us and NEON plots, where tree data are obtained by both NEON and us, with seed traps and crop counts by us. A treatment column has the following codes: GAP – experimental gaps; GAPxEXP – gap and deer exclosures (with interaction); N – 1/2 of plots fertilized with nitrogen, CO2 – Free-air CO2 enrichment

Data summary for long-term forest plots
plot site state lon lat start trees treatments
ASWP_1 Alder Stream Wilderness ME -69.07 45.20 2019 780
CALL_HDWD Callaway Forest NC -79.27 35.03 2019 165
CALL_PIPA Callaway Forest NC -79.31 35.01 2018 84
CWT_118 Coweeta Hydrologic Lab NC -83.43 35.05 1993 1425
CWT_218 Coweeta Hydrologic Lab NC -83.43 35.05 1993 951
CWT_318 Coweeta Hydrologic Lab NC -83.43 35.05 1993 703
CWT_427 Coweeta Hydrologic Lab NC -83.46 35.04 1993 876
CWT_527 Coweeta Hydrologic Lab NC -83.46 35.03 1993 1185
CWT_LG Coweeta Hydrologic Lab NC -83.46 35.04 2000 7734 GAP
CWT_UG Coweeta Hydrologic Lab NC -83.46 35.04 2000 2314 GAP
DSNY_006 Disney Wilderness FL -81.40 28.09 2018 14
DSNY_008 Disney Wilderness FL -81.40 28.05 2018 11
DSNY_010 Disney Wilderness FL -81.44 28.12 2018 9
DUKE_BW Duke Forest NC -79.09 35.98 2000 15353 GAPxEXL
DUKE_EE Duke Forest NC -79.06 36.04 2008 2083
DUKE_EW Duke Forest NC -79.07 36.03 2004 8773 GAPxEXL
DUKE_FACE1 Duke Forest NC -79.09 35.98 1997 105 N
DUKE_FACE2 Duke Forest NC -79.09 35.98 1997 74 NxCO2
DUKE_FACE3 Duke Forest NC -79.09 35.98 1997 122 NxCO2
DUKE_FACE4 Duke Forest NC -79.09 35.98 1997 121 NxCO2
DUKE_FACE5 Duke Forest NC -79.09 35.98 1997 107 N
DUKE_FACE6 Duke Forest NC -79.09 35.98 1997 167 N
DUKE_HW Duke Forest NC -79.10 35.98 1999 9819 GAPxEXL
DUKE_PICR Duke Forest NC -78.94 35.99 2017 31
DUKE_PIPA Duke Forest NC -78.99 36.02 2018 46
GRSM_CD Great Smoky Mtns NP TN -83.49 35.57 2011 342
GRSM_ND Great Smoky Mtns NP NC -83.48 35.56 2012 3090
GRSM_PK Great Smoky Mtns NP NC -83.08 35.59 2011 1283
GRSW_BIS Green Swamp NC -78.30 34.09 2018 38
HARV_001 Harvard Forest MA -72.26 42.42 2018 80
HARV_002 Harvard Forest MA -72.26 42.48 2018 71
HARV_004 Harvard Forest MA -72.23 42.43 2018 57
HARV_005 Harvard Forest MA -72.28 42.49 2018 93
HARV_006 Harvard Forest MA -72.25 42.40 2018 81
HARV_008 Harvard Forest MA -72.23 42.44 2018 44
HARV_010 Harvard Forest MA -72.25 42.42 2018 61
HARV_013 Harvard Forest MA -72.25 42.39
HARV_021 Harvard Forest MA -72.25 42.45 2018 40
HARV_022 Harvard Forest MA -72.20 42.43 2018 92
HARV_BW Harvard Forest MA -72.18 42.48 2011 1157
HARV_S Harvard Forest MA -72.22 42.46 2011 1418
MARS_F Mars Hill NC -82.56 35.83 2004 984
MARS_P Mars Hill NC -82.55 35.82 2004 1401
MLBS_001 Mtn Lake Biol Stn VA -80.52 37.36 2018 39
MLBS_002 Mtn Lake Biol Stn VA -80.52 37.37 2018 36
MLBS_003 Mtn Lake Biol Stn VA -80.53 37.37 2018 32
MLBS_005 Mtn Lake Biol Stn VA -80.52 37.36 2018 36
MLBS_006 Mtn Lake Biol Stn VA -80.56 37.43 2018 25
MLBS_007 Mtn Lake Biol Stn VA -80.57 37.43 2018 36
MLBS_008 Mtn Lake Biol Stn VA -80.50 37.43 2018 41
MLBS_009 Mtn Lake Biol Stn VA -80.52 37.37 2018 44
MLBS_010 Mtn Lake Biol Stn VA -80.53 37.37 2018 47
MLBS_011 Mtn Lake Biol Stn VA -80.52 37.36 2018 40
NIWO_001 Niwot Ridge CO -105.56 40.04 2016 121
NIWO_002 Niwot Ridge CO -105.55 40.04 2016 165
NIWO_005 Niwot Ridge CO -105.57 40.04 2016 128
NIWO_007 Niwot Ridge CO -105.56 40.04 2016 195
NIWO_009 Niwot Ridge CO -105.56 40.05 2016 181
NIWO_010 Niwot Ridge CO -105.57 40.04 2016 149
OSBS_001 Ordway-Swisher Biol Stn FL -82.01 29.70 2018 39
OSBS_002 Ordway-Swisher Biol Stn FL -81.96 29.70 2018 74
OSBS_003 Ordway-Swisher Biol Stn FL -81.95 29.69 2018 59
OSBS_004 Ordway-Swisher Biol Stn FL -81.96 29.68 2018 95
OSBS_007 Ordway-Swisher Biol Stn FL -81.96 29.69 2018 54
OSBS_008 Ordway-Swisher Biol Stn FL -82.01 29.69 2018 38
SERC_001 Smithsonian Env Res Ctr MD -76.53 38.87 2015 38
SERC_002 Smithsonian Env Res Ctr MD -76.56 38.90 2015 7
SERC_003 Smithsonian Env Res Ctr MD -76.54 38.90 2015 24
SERC_006 Smithsonian Env Res Ctr MD -76.55 38.88 2015 26
SERC_009 Smithsonian Env Res Ctr MD -76.56 38.90 2015 17
SERC_010 Smithsonian Env Res Ctr MD -76.55 38.91 2015 16
SERC_016 Smithsonian Env Res Ctr MD -76.55 38.90 2015 28
SERC_021 Smithsonian Env Res Ctr MD -76.56 38.90 2015 20
SERC_022 Smithsonian Env Res Ctr MD -76.55 38.88 2015 30
SOAP_001 Soaproot Saddle CA -119.27 37.04 2018 25
SOAP_002 Soaproot Saddle CA -119.28 37.03 2018 37
SOAP_004 Soaproot Saddle CA -119.27 37.04 2018 40
SOAP_008 Soaproot Saddle CA -119.28 37.03 2018 16
SOAP_011 Soaproot Saddle CA -119.26 37.04 2018 35
SOAP_025 Soaproot Saddle CA -119.26 37.04 2018 15
TALL_001 Talladega AL -87.43 32.98 2015 23
TALL_002 Talladega AL -87.43 32.92 2015 39
TALL_003 Talladega AL -87.42 32.89 2015 2
TALL_004 Talladega AL -87.43 32.96 2015 11
TALL_005 Talladega AL -87.40 32.90 2015 12
TALL_006 Talladega AL -87.45 32.90 2015 10
TALL_007 Talladega AL -87.43 32.97 2015 29
TALL_008 Talladega AL -87.43 32.92 2015 13
TALL_009 Talladega AL -87.41 32.90 2015 12
TALL_013 Talladega AL -87.45 32.88 2015 7
TREE_001 Treehaven WI -89.57 45.49 2017 21
TREE_002 Treehaven WI -89.57 45.49 2017 29
TREE_003 Treehaven WI -89.58 45.49 2017 21
TREE_004 Treehaven WI -89.56 45.48 2017 23
TREE_005 Treehaven WI -89.56 45.48 2017 3
TREE_006 Treehaven WI -89.55 45.49 2017 25
TREE_007 Treehaven WI -89.56 45.50 2017 20
TREE_008 Treehaven WI -89.55 45.48 2017 11
TREE_014 Treehaven WI -89.57 45.49 2017 9
TREE_015 Treehaven WI -89.55 45.49 2017 29
UKFS_016 Univ Kansas Field Stn KS -95.19 39.04 2018
UNDE_001 Univ Notre Dame Res Ctr WI -89.56 46.23 2018 35
UNDE_002 Univ Notre Dame Res Ctr WI -89.54 46.24 2018 49
UNDE_003 Univ Notre Dame Res Ctr WI -89.54 46.26 2018 44
UNDE_006 Univ Notre Dame Res Ctr WI -89.51 46.25 2018 31
UNDE_007 Univ Notre Dame Res Ctr WI -89.54 46.25 2018 45
UNDE_008 Univ Notre Dame Res Ctr WI -89.52 46.26 2018 31
UNDE_010 Univ Notre Dame Res Ctr WI -89.54 46.24 2018 51
UNDE_011 Univ Notre Dame Res Ctr WI -89.51 46.22 2018 35
UNDE_012 Univ Notre Dame Res Ctr WI -89.50 46.24 2018 29
UNDE_015 Univ Notre Dame Res Ctr WI -89.51 46.23 2018 66
UNDE_A Univ Notre Dame Res Ctr WI -89.55 46.25 2012 2787
WREF_001 Wind River WA -122 45.84 2018 47
WREF_003 Wind River WA -122.02 45.83 2018 36
WREF_004 Wind River WA -122 45.82 2018 46
WREF_005 Wind River WA -122 45.84 2018 111
WREF_007 Wind River WA -121.99 45.85 2018 106
WREF_009 Wind River WA -122 45.84 2018 25
WREF_011 Wind River WA -121.98 45.83 2018 72
WREF_012 Wind River WA -121.86 45.84 2018 33
WREF_013 Wind River WA -122.02 45.84 2018 50
WREF_014 Wind River WA -121.99 45.85 2018 85
YELL_007 Yellowstone WY -110.43 44.92 2018 27
YELL_023 Yellowstone WY -110.63 44.94 2018 25
YELL_026 Yellowstone WY -110.65 44.94 2018 11
YELL_SYLV1 Yellowstone Sylvan 1 WY -110.16 44.48 2019 20
YELL_SYLV2 Yellowstone Sylvan 2 WY -110.16 44.48 2019 20
YELL_SYLV3 Yellowstone Sylvan 3 WY -110.15 44.48 2019 21
YELL_SYLV4 Yellowstone Sylvan 4 WY -110.15 44.48 2019 22

 

Postdoctoral associates, past and present

Sean McMahon, Temperate Progr Coordinator, Smithsonian Environm Res Center

PhD students

Brian Beckage, Associate Professor, University of Vermont

Dave Bell, Research Forester, USFS, Corvallis

Aaron Berdannier, Postdoctoral Associate, Duke University

Mike Dietze, Associate Professor, Boston University

Michelle Hersh, Assistant Professor, Sarah Lawrence University

Janneke HilleRisLambers, Associate Professor, University of Washington

Inés Ibáñez, Associate Professor, University of Michigan

Matthew Kwit, Data Scientist

Shannon LaDeau, Associate Scientist, Cary Institute for Ecosystem Studies

Jackie Mohan, Associate Professor, University of Georgia

Emily Moran, Assistant Professor, University of California, Merced

Carl Salk, Postdoctoral Associate, University of Colorado

Mike Wolosin, Climate Advisers, Washington DC

Peter Wyckoff, Professor, University of Minnesota at Morris

 

USFS collaborators

    • Chelsea Miniat
    • Jim Vose

Funding: National Science Foundation

Recent publications

    • Clark, J.S., C.L. Nuñez, and B. Tomasek. 2019. Foodwebs based on unreliable foundations: spatio-temporal masting merged with consumer movement, storage, and diet. Ecological Monographs, 00( 00):e01381. 10.1002/ecm.1381. Appendix
    • Berdanier, A. and J. S. Clark. 2018. Tree water balance drives temperate forest responses to drought. Ecology, 99: 2506-2514. ecologyBerdanier2018
    • Berdanier, A., C. Miniat, and J.S. Clark. 2016. Predictive models for radial sap flux variation in coniferous, diffuse-porous, and ring-porous temperate trees. Tree Physiology, 36: 932-941. berdanierTreePhys2016, treePhys_berdanier2016Suppl
    • Berdanier, A. and J.S. Clark. 2016. Divergent reproductive allocation trade-offs with canopy exposure across tree species in temperate forests. Ecosphere, DOI:10.1002/ecs2.1313.
    • Berdanier, A. and J.S. Clark. 2016. Multi-year drought-induced morbidity preceding tree death in Southeastern US forests. Ecological Applications, 26:17-23. BerdanierEA2016
    • Bell, D.M. and J.S. Clark 2015. Seed predation and climate impacts on reproductive variation in temperate forests of the southeastern USA. Oecologia, 180, 1223–1234. bell2016
    • Schliep, E.M., A.E. Gelfand, and J.S. Clark. 2015. Stochastic modeling for velocity of climate change.  Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 20: 323-342.jabesSchliep2014a
    • Bell, D.M., E. J. Ward, C. Oishi, R. Oren, P. Flikkema, and J. S. Clark. 2015. A state-space modeling approach to estimating canopy conductance and associated uncertainties from sap flux density data. Tree Physiology,35: 792-802. berdanierTreePhys2016
    • Zhu, K., C. Woodall, and J.S. Clark. 2015. Prevalence and strength of density-dependent tree recruitment, Ecology,96:2319–2327. ecologyZhu2015