Kate McMahon: The Implications of Sea Level Rise

The demand for energy globally has increased significantly over the past 50 years. The EIA currently estimates that global energy consumption will increase by another 56% by 2040.[1] These facts concern environmentalists, as 80% of the world’s total energy production comes from fossil fuels.[2] The burning of fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which traps energy and causes climate change. Currently, global temperatures record more than 1 degree Fahrenheit higher than 100 years ago. While global climate change causes many issues, one of the most directly visible issues remains sea level rise.

 

If emissions go unabated, scientists predict that the temperatures of the earth will likely rise by 3-7 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100. In 2007, scientists expected that by the end of the century, the ocean would rise somewhere between 7 inches and 2 feet.[3] However, the current consensus states sea levels will rise 2-7 feet from current levels. The sea levels rise for two main reasons. Land-based ice sheets and glaciers melt faster with the increase in temperatures. When they melt, the water drains into the ocean, causing the levels to rise. Similarly, large chunks of ice sheets break off and fall into the ocean, causing the levels to rise similar to that of ice in a glass of water. Recent data indicates not only the occurrence of ice shelf melting, but rather the pace at which the shelves melt is accelerating.[4] The West Antarctica Ice Sheet has entered a state of unstoppable collapse.[5] These facts show that climate change causes irreversible damage that could have serious impacts for coastal towns over the next century, such as increased flooding or destruction of their homes.

 

Currently more than 100 million Americans, nearly 40 percent, live in counties directly on the shoreline[6]. However, with sea levels projected to rise 2-7 feet, these neighborhoods and counties are extremely vulnerable to sea level rise. Increased flooding due to sea level rise could leave these densely populated areas severely unprepared or exposed to severe property damage.[7] The new danger zones for flooding could force many people to relocate, abandoning their homes. However, this is not a reality for many families who could not afford to do so. Secondly, as the salt water continues to go further inland as it rises, other severe issues such as flooding, aquifer contamination and erosion of land. This will affect entire counties’ access to clean water and the quality of life in these areas will decline. The seawater further inland will also threaten the habitats of many species of wildlife and plants. These severe consequences will wreak havoc on the millions of people currently living on coastal land globally. The IPCC states that as much as 33% of coastal land will likely be lost in the next 100 years if sea levels continue to rise at current rates[8].

 

The problem of sea level rise disproportionately affects those who do not have the resources to prepare for it. Many low-lying coastal regions such as Vietnam and Bangladesh have significant populations living in high-risk areas, and others such as the Philippines and Indonesia do not have enough land in high elevation areas to accommodate the displaced populations should sea levels continue to rise. These equity issues will be a large problem throughout the second half of the century should climate change continue to contribute to sea level rise.

 

According to new data from the National Center on Atmospheric Research, humans can only slow the pace of sea level rise.[9] The carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere will likely continue to have effects on sea level for centuries to come. Even under the most aggressive abatement policies, people must prepare to adapt to sea level change. Globally, $11 trillion of assets sit below the 100-year flood line.[10] We must adapt to the changing sea levels, as complete mitigation of the problem is unlikely. Examples of coastal flood protections include levees, wetlands, sea walls and other mechanical barriers. Similarly, cutting greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible will mitigate some, though admittedly not all, of the damage currently looming for future generations. Both state and federal governments must act quickly, as the longer this problem remains unsolved, the more damage may be done by sea level rise.

 

Eva comment:

I like that when discussing the issue of climate change and its effects, you focused on the human-centered aspect. For many people, it is difficult to get on board with trying to stop or slow climate change because they cannot relate to many of the ecological issues that the earth may face in the future. However, bringing up the problems human populations, coastal and others, will face allow the face of climate change to shift to one that is more recognizable and relatable. Unfortunately, for some this is still not enough. Many nay-sayers still point out the flaws in models, suggesting that the future effects of climate change cannot be said to be definite because all models are inherently flawed. While scientists will admit that, by definition, models are all false, they are based on true, good science, and they do give us a very good prediction of the  future, so they should be taken into consideration for the future. Addressing the concerns of critics of climate change models is one useful follow up for this blog. An additional follow-up to this subject is the ecological problems many coastal flood protections can create. Unfortunately, sea walls and and other mechanical barriers can create an accumulation of sea sediments below the continental shelf and can create beach erosion downstream of these barriers. Solutions for sea level arise can solve some problems while creating others, and hopefully in the future we will be able to find solutions that will have greater beneficial effects than negative ones.

 

David comment:

To Eva: In response to nay-sayers: Do you remember the advertising video we watched earlier in the semester about the Pacific Island dying under the effects of global warming, when we were talking about what makes an effective environmental argument? I agree with Eva that focusing on the human populations is incredibly important to creating a persuasive and urgent message behind global warming and sea level rise, but as I said back then, I think that moving it to an even more local level makes it even harder to ignore. After reading your blog, I went and did some research on things happening now in the US that scared me so much. In Delaware, an estuary turned to pure saltwater, leading to massive crop failure, and Louisiana is losing part of its delta system at “approximately 100 yards an hour.” (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/04/04/louisianas-coastline-is-disappearing-heres-why-its-so-hard-to-escape/) AN HOUR! THAT’S SO SCARY!

Thank you for the great blog, Kate, and I hope that campaigns to save the coast can start gaining ground soon.

 

Annie comment:

Kate, your blog really put the issue of climate change into perspective. I often find myself forgetting that overusing energy and contributing a large amount of trash is actually affecting what happens elsewhere. Even though we have always learned that even one person can make a difference, I sometimes forget that this is true. As a population, we need to decrease our energy usage and find a way to slow climate change, as you have mentioned. In the United States, many people cannot relate to rising sea levels in Indonesia or the Philippines. To raise awareness, we need to find a way to really connect it to home. In my opinion, another news article about the rise in sea level does not send a message. There are certain ways to really get a point across and we need to figure out what that best option is. Sometimes it is bad to use scare tactics, but in this case it might not be the worst option. If people do not change their habits, this issue will continue to get worse. The problem will not stagnate; in the future, humans will use more and more energy, contributing an increasing amount to climate change. We cannot keep telling ourselves that it doesn’t matter, we have to really work to change our habits and get others involved.

 

[1] U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2013, July 25). EIA projects world energy consumption will increase 56% by 2040. Retrieved April 3, 2015.

[2]ibid

[3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007). IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. IPCC Assessment Report, 4. Retrieved April 1, 2015.

[4] Paolo, F. (2014, March 26). Volume loss from Antarctic ice shelves is accelerating. Retrieved April 3, 2015.

[5] National Geographic. (2014, December 1). Sea Level Rise. Retrieved April 3, 2015.

[6] National Ocean Service. (2014, February 7). What percentage of the American population lives near the coast? Retrieved April 3, 2015.

[7] loc cit National Geographic

[8] Climate Institute. (2010, November 15). Consequences of climate change on the ocean. Retrieved April 4, 2015.

[9] Meehl, G. (2012, July 1). Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea-level rise. Retrieved April 3, 2015.

[10] Kahn, B. (2014, February 3). Adapting to Sea Level Rise Could Save Trillions by 2100. Retrieved April 3, 2015.