Climate Dynamics
Climate Dynamics

Publications

Underlines indicate Duke advisee

Submitted/In revision

  • Liu, S., Hu, S., and Seager, R. (202X) A Snow-Fire Bridge Mechanism for 2025 Southern California Winter Wildfire. Submitted.
  • Hu, S., and Hu, S. (202X) Detected fingerprints of atmospheric rivers on marine heatwaves. Submitted.
  • Li, X., Hu, S., Fedorov, A. V., and Van Roekel, L. (202X) Atlantic Multidecadal Variability driven by an atmospheric mechanism. Submitted.
  • Liu, S. and Hu, S. (202X) Seeing through the Sea with Satellites: Reconstructing Ocean Subsurface Temperature and Salinity with Satellite Observations. Submitted.
  • Miao, Y., Hu, S., …, and Li, X. (202X) Intensified Equatorial Asymmetries in the Tropical Pacific Climate Changes Induced by Remote Atlantic Forcing. Submitted.

2026

  • Xu, T., Katul, G. G., Hu, S. (2026) Stochastic resonance elucidates the emergence and periodicity transition of glacial cycles. Geophysical Research Letters, 53, e2025GL118862. [link]
  • Pan, M., Hu, S., …, and Pan, W. K. (2026) A machine learning-based dynamic SST index for long-lead malaria prediction in the Peruvian Amazon. In press at GeoHealth.

2025

  • Liu, S., Hu, S., and McPhaden, M. J. (2025) Salinity-induced eastward flow in boreal spring favors extreme El Niño. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2025GL118731. [link]
  • Pan, M., Hu, S., Zaitchik, B., and Pan, W. K. (2025) Contrasting historical trend of atmospheric rivers in the Northern Hemisphere. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 8(1), 307. [link]
  • Liu, T., and Hu, S. (2025) An algorithm to develop a satellite-based atmospheric river database. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(5), e2024GL111316. [link]
  • Zhang, Y., Li, W., …, Hu, S., …, N. Cassar (2025) Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean. Nature Climate Change, doi: 10.1038/s41558-025-02375-1. [link] [NCC briefing] [Duke News]
  • Ren, Q., Li, Y., Hu, S., Xie, S.-P., Lyu, Y., and Wang, F. (2025) Heat storage pattern linked to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(13), e2025GL116801. [link]
  • Vialard, J., Jin, F.-F., …, Hu, S., … (2025) The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recharge Oscillator Conceptual Model: Achievements and Future Prospects. Reviews of Geophysics, 63(1), e2024RG000843. [link]

2024

  • Liu, S., Hu, S., and Seager, R. (2024) The Western Pacific teleconnection drives autumn wildfires in the western United States after 2000. Earth’s Future, 12(11), e2024EF004922. [link] [Eos Editor’s Highlight]
  • Li, X., Hu, S., Hu, Y., Cai, W., …, and Nie, J. (2024) Persistently active El Niño–Southern Oscillation since the Mesozoic. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 121(45), e2404758121. [link] [USA Today] [Duke Today]
  • Wang, H., Hu, S., Guan, C., and Li, X. (2024) The critical role of ocean salinity in long-lead El Niño forecasting in the 21st century. npj Clim. Atmos Sci., 7(1), 206. [link]
  • Zhang, Y., Chen, C., Hu, S., Wang, G., McMonigal, K., and Larson, S. M. (2024) Summer westerly wind intensification weakens Southern Ocean seasonal cycle under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 51(14), e2024GL109715. [link]
  • Liu, S. and Hu, S. (2024) A 21st century shift in the mechanisms of the early-winter United States snowfall variability. Environ. Res. Lett., 19(7), 074021. [link]
  • Fu, S., Hu, S., and Zheng, X.-T. (2024) Collaborative role of warm pool edge and ocean heat content in El Niño development: implications for the 1982/83 extreme El Niño. Clim. Dynam. [link].
  • Fu, S., Hu, S., Zheng, X.-T., McMonigal, K., Larson, S., and Tian, Y. (2024) Historical changes in wind-driven ocean circulation drive pattern of Pacific warming. Nat. Commun., 15(1), 1562. [link] [correction]
  • Yang, N., Xia, Y., Zhao, C., Xie, F., Hu, S. (2024) Emission reductions during COVID-19 enhance marine heatwave over the North Pacific in spring 2020. Clim. Dynam., 1-16. [link]
  • Byrne, M. P., Boos, W. R., and Hu, S. (2024) Elevation-dependent warming: observations, models, and energetic mechanisms. Weather and Clim. Dynam., 5(2), 763-777. [link]
  • Wei, M., Yang, J., Hu, Y., Liu, Y., Hu, S., Li, X., Lan, J., Guo, J., Yuan, S., Nie, J. (2024) Simulated Warming Hole in Paleo-Pacific Oceans. J. Clim., 37(12), 3359-3376. [link]

2023

  • Tian, Y., Hu, S., Deser, C. (2023) Critical role of biomass burning aerosols in enhanced historical Indian Ocean warming. Nat. Commun., 14(1), 3508.
  • Wang, H., Hu, S., and Li, X. (2023) An Interpretable Deep Learning Model for ENSO forecasts. Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Research, 2, 0012.
  • Hu, S., Xie, S.-P., Seager, R., and Cane, M. (2023) Spatial and seasonal variations of sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection. J. Clim., 1-26.
  • Kang, S. M., Shin, Y., Kim, H., Xie, S.-P., and Hu, S. (2023) Disentangling the mechanisms of equatorial Pacific climate change. Sci. Adv., accepted.
  • McMonigal, K., Larson, S., Hu, S., and Kramer, R. (2023) Historical changes in wind driven ocean circulation can accelerate global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 50(4), e2023GL102846.
  • Li, X., Hu, Y., …, and Hu, S. (2023) Climate variations in the past 250 million years and contributing factors. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, e2022PA004503.

2022

  • Hu, S., Xie, S.-P., and Kang, S. M. (2022) Global warming pattern formation: the role of ocean heat uptake. J. Clim., 35(6), 1885-1899.

2021

  • Hu, S., (2021) Refining El Niño projections. Nat. Clim. Change, doi: 10.1038/s41558-021-01126-2. [link]

2020

  • Hu, S., and Fedorov, A. V. (2020) Indian Ocean warming as a driver of the North Atlantic warming hole. Nat. Commun., 11, 4785.
  • Hu, S., Xie, S. P., and Liu, W. (2020) Global pattern formation of net ocean surface heat flux response to greenhouse warming. J. Clim., 33(17), 7503-7522.
  • Liu, W., Fedorov, A. V., Xie, S. P., Hu, S. (2020) Climate impacts of a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a warming climate, Sci. Adv., 6(26), eaaz4876.
  • Fedorov, A. V., Hu, S., Wittenberg, A. T., Levine, A., and Deser, C. (2020) ENSO Low-frequency modulations and mean state interactions. Chapter 6 of ENSO in a Changing Climate. AGU monograph, in press.
  • Shi, J., Fedorov, A. V., and Hu, S. (2019) A Sea Surface Height Perspective on El Niño Diversity, Ocean Energetics, and Energy Damping Rates. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47(7), e2019GL086742.
  • Peng, Q., Xie, S.-P., Wang, D., Kamae, Y., Zhang, H., Hu, S., Zheng, X.-T., and Wang, W. (2020) Eastern Pacific wind effect on the evolution of El Niño: Implications for ENSO diversity. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0435.1

2019

  • Hu, S., and Fedorov, A. V. (2019) Indian Ocean warming can strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Nat. Clim. Change, 9, 747–751. [link] [pdf] [Nature Climate Change News & Views] [Yale News] [Scripps News] [Physics World]
  • Hu, S., and Vallis, G. K. (2019) Meridional structure and future changes of tropopause height and temperature. Q. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.3587 [link]
  • Nie, J., Xia, Y., Hu, S., Yuan, W., Yang, J., and Ma D. (2019) Similarity of atmospheric thermal stratification over elevated surface under radiative-convective equilibrium. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2018GL081867. [link]
  • Shi, J., Fedorov, A. V., Hu, S. (2019) North Pacific temperature and precipitation response to El Niño-like equatorial heating: sensitivity to forcing location. Clim. Dyn., doi: 10.1007/s00382-019-04655-x. [link][pdf]

Prior to 2018

  • Hu, S., and Fedorov, A. V. (2018) Cross-equatorial winds control El Niño diversity and change. Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 798-802. [link] [pdf] [Nature Climate Change News & Views] [Yale News]
  • Hu, S., and Boos, W. R. (2017) The physics of orographic elevated heating in radiative-convective equilibrium. J. Atmos. Sci., 74, 2949–2965. [link] [pdf]
  • Hu, S., and Boos, W. R. (2017) Competing effects of surface albedo and orographic elevated heating on regional climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44(13), 6966-6973. [link][pdf] [Eos Research Spotlights]
  • Hu, S., and Fedorov, A. V. (2017) The extreme El Niño of 2015-2016 and the end of global warming hiatus. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44(8), 3816-3824. [link] [pdf] [Yale News]
  • Hu, S., and Fedorov, A. V. (2017) The extreme El Niño of 2015-2016: the role of westerly and easterly wind bursts, and preconditioning by the failed 2014 event. Clim. Dynam., doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3531-2. [link] [pdf]
  • Hu, S.,and Fedorov, A. V. (2016) Exceptionally strong easterly wind burst stalling El Niño of 2014. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 113(8), 2005-2010. [link] [pdf]
  • Williams, R. H., McGee, D., Ridley, D. A., Kinsley, C. W., Hu, S., Fedorov, A. V., Tal, I., Murray, R., deMenocal, P. B. (2016) Glacial to Holocene changes in trans-Atlantic Saharan dust transport and dust-climate feedbacks. Sci. Adv., 2(11), e1600445. [link] [pdf] [MIT News]
  • Fedorov, A. V., Hu, S., Lengaigne, M., and Guilyardi, E. (2015) The impact of westerly wind bursts and ocean initial state on the development, and diversity of El Niño events. Clim. Dynam., 44, 1381–1401.[link] [pdf]
  • Hu, S., Fedorov, A. V., Lengaigne, M., and Guilyardi, E. (2014) The impact of westerly wind bursts on the diversity and predictability of El Niño events: An ocean energetics perspective. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41(13), 4654-4663. [link] [pdf]

In preparation

  • Tian, Y., Hu, S., Deser, C., Huang, X., and Chen, X. (202X) Southern Ocean mean state constrains transient climate sensitivity. In prep.
  • Kawashima, H., and Hu, S. (202X) Tropical rainfall variability during the Pliocene warmth. In prep.
  • Hu, S., and Liu, T. (202X) Theoretical basis of reconstructing column moisture transport with column water vapor and ocean surface wind. In prep.
  • Hu, S., and Seager, R. (202X) Revisiting the enhanced Indian Ocean warming since 1950: A major point of disagreement between observations and CMIP6 models. In prep.
  • Hu, S., and Vallis, G. K. (202X) Energetic constraints on relative humidity. In prep.

Non-refereed publications:

  • Chen, N., Thual, S., and Hu, S. (2019) El Nino and the Southern Oscillation: Observations, Elsevier Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences.
  • Hu, S. (2018) El Niño diversity, intraseasonal wind bursts, and decadal climate change. PhD Thesis, Yale University, New Haven, CT.
  • Hu, S., and Fedorov, A. V. (2017) An interplay between westerly and easterly wind bursts shaping El Niño development in 2014-2016. U.S. CLIVAR Exchanges, 71, 26-31. [link] [Invited contribution]
  • Hu, S. (2014) Models for Tropopause Height and Radiative-Convective Equilibrium. WHOI GFD Summer School Ann. Proc. Vol.,2014, 240-260. [link]